If you’re looking for solid Kentucky Derby 2025 predictions, you’ve probably already heard the hype around Journalism. But here’s the reality check: being the favorite doesn’t always mean you’ll finish first.
Alright, so you’re putting your hopes (and maybe your wallet) on Journalism this year. Can’t blame you. The horse looks sharp, the buzz is loud, and the analysts love a good frontrunner. But before you jump on the hype train full speed, let’s take a deep breath and remember one crucial thing about the Kentucky Derby:
Being the favorite doesn’t guarantee squat.
Wait, So What’s the Problem With Favorites?
In theory? None. Everyone loves a winner. But in practice? This race has been straight-up savage to top picks lately.
Let’s look at the recent graveyard of favorites:
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2021: Mandaloun came out of nowhere with 26-1 odds
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2022: Rich Strike pulled off an actual miracle at 80-1
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2023: Mage grabbed it with 15-1 odds
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2024: Mystik Dan surprised everyone at 18-1
So yeah. In the past few years, the Derby has become the stage for longshot legends, not safe bets. That “chalk” pick? It’s been getting crushed.
As trainer Whit Beckman said it best:
“It’s not about who’s the best horse. It’s about who can survive the chaos.”
Which brings us here: if you want to beat the odds (and maybe impress your group chat), you might want to consider a few less obvious contenders. Let’s talk about three horses that could pull off the upset of the year and make Journalism sweat.
Sovereignty – The Quiet Closer With a Dangerous Kick
Snapshot:
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Odds: Roughly 5-1
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Trainer: Bill Mott
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Big Moment: Winner of the Street Sense Stakes
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Recent Form: Finished second to Journalism in the Florida Derby
Sovereignty isn’t the kind of horse that makes headlines for crazy speed or wild finishes. But this horse? Oh, it’s the definition of “lurking danger.”
He tends to chill at the back, watching everyone else burn out, and then BOOM—he hits the gas and storms the stretch like he’s got something to prove. Like that quiet coworker who suddenly takes over a project and nails the presentation while everyone else is still arguing over the slides.
Trainer Bill Mott is all-in, too:
“This might be our best chance to win the Derby.”
In your Kentucky Derby 2025 predictions, don’t count out Sovereignty. If he can keep that late momentum going through the full 1¼ miles? Watch out, Journalism.
Burnham Square – The Late-Bloomer With Serious Heat
Snapshot:
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Odds: Estimated 8-1
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Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr. (yup, the 2024 Derby champ)
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Big Moment: Winner of the Blue Grass Stakes
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Speed Rating: Beyer 96
Burnham Square is the kind of horse that skips the early fireworks and saves the drama for the final act. In the Blue Grass Stakes, he went from dead last to first like he was playing Mario Kart with all the boost pads.
And this isn’t some fluke performance—his trainer, Ian Wilkes, is downright pumped:
“He’s hitting form right when it counts.”
Let’s not overlook his jockey either. Hernandez just won the Derby last year. That’s not just a fun trivia fact—momentum matters in this game.
If you’re into late-runners who love drama, this might be your guy.
Baeza – The New Kid With Giant Potential
Snapshot:
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Odds: Probably 12-1 or more
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Trainer: John Shirreffs (yes, the same guy who shocked everyone with Giacomo at 50-1 in 2005)
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First Race Ever: Valentine’s Day 2025
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Last Seen: 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby, right behind Journalism
Okay, so Baeza is green. Like, just-learned-where-the-starting-gate-is green. But the raw talent? It’s loud.
Despite being a rookie, Baeza finished just behind Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby. That’s no small feat for someone with barely a few races under his belt. You can almost see the learning curve happening in real time—kind of like a freshman who aces the final without ever taking notes.
Trainer John Shirreffs knows how to pull off the impossible.
“He’s picking things up fast, and he’s got power under the hood.”
If this young gun puts the pieces together by race day, don’t say we didn’t warn you.
Which Horse Fits Your Kentucky Derby 2025 Predictions?
If you’re risk-averse, Journalism is still a valid pick. He’s earned the hype. But if you want a horse that’ll make you feel alive—possibly panicked, probably excited—then one of these three longshots could be the real MVP.
Here’s a handy cheat sheet:
| Horse | Style | What Makes Them Interesting | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sovereignty | Deep closer | Consistent, smart, and sneaky fast | Medium |
| Burnham Square | Late runner | Peaking at the right time | Medium-High |
| Baeza | Young closer | Wild potential + trained by a legend | High |
Final Thoughts: Chaos Is the Tradition
Let’s be real: the Kentucky Derby isn’t just a horse race—it’s a two-minute thrill ride filled with dust, drama, and more unpredictability than your group project in college.
Picking a winner here isn’t about stats alone. It’s about finding the horse that’s ready to handle the chaos when it hits the fan.
Like the old racing proverb goes:
“You don’t need the best horse. You need the right horse at the right moment.”
So place your bets. Cheer your heart out. And maybe—just maybe—don’t sleep on the ones flying under the radar. Because of this race? Underdogs eat favorites for breakfast.
And if you want a break from the chaos of the Derby, check out our article on Anne-Marie’s Baby Boy 2025, where we dive into all the exciting news around this upcoming milestone!
FAQ: Kentucky Derby 2025 – What You Need to Know
Q: Who is the current favorite for the 2025 Kentucky Derby?
A: Journalism is the frontrunner, thanks to a strong season and a solid win in the Florida Derby.
Q: Why do longshots keep winning the Derby?
A: The field is big, the pace is wild, and anything can happen. Favorites often get boxed in or burn out early, while patient runners find their moment late.
Q: What should I consider before betting?
A: Look at recent performances, running style, jockey history, and how they’ve handled big fields. Also, trust your gut a little—it’s horse racing, not engineering.
Q: Can a horse win the Derby after just a few starts?
A: Absolutely. Just ask Baeza. Raw talent plus great training can make magic.
Q: Where can I watch the Kentucky Derby?
A: NBC is broadcasting it live, and you can stream it on Peacock or via most major sportsbooks that offer live race coverage.